FOLLOWING the announcement that both Cheshire East and Cheshire West councils will be placed in Tier Two at the end of lockdown, it's natural to assume that means the county will have a Tier Two Christmas.

However, the announcement was also accompanied by a promise from Health Secretary Matt Hancock that each area's position will be reviewed in a fortnight, so there is scope for boroughs to move up and down the system.

So, is there a chance Cheshire will be in Tier One on December 25?

What does the data say now?

In the seven days up to November 21 — the most recently available date — Cheshire East recorded an infection rate of 165.3 cases per 100,000. The rate was 250.9 ten days earlier.

Cheshire West also saw its peak on November 11, when rates hit 324.1. Currently, the borough is experiencing a rate of 185.1.

Although the trends in the data are encouraging, it is important to remember just how low they have to be for the government to feel confident enough to place an area in Tier One.

Cornwall is the only area of the mainland UK to be in Tier One, and its infection rate on November 21 was 59.1 — roughly half that of CEC and around a third of CWAC's rate.

It's also important to note that infection rates are not the only metric officials look at to determine a tiering.

Shortly after Mr Hancock's announcement, the government published its reasoning behind each area's placing.

On the Cheshire and Warrington sub-region, which is how the government has defined tier-areas, the statement said: "Case rates are continuing to decline across Warrington and Cheshire, with a 27.4 per cent fall to 209 people per 100,000, in line with Liverpool City Region.

"However, case rates in those over-60 remain high (175/100,000), though falling. Positivity is 8.1 per cent. Warrington and Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has 150 inpatients with Covid-19."

Other Cheshire NHS trusts are seeing peaks in the amount of patients in hospitals.

Mid Cheshire Hospitals Foundation Trust, which runs Leighton Hospital, was treating 44 Covid patients on Tuesday (November 24) and its highest figure during the second wave saw 71 Covid patients coming last Sunday (November 22).

The most recent data suggests East Cheshire Trust has 44 Covid patients, with its peak of 45 coming on November 23. Two of these patients required the use of a mechanical ventilator.

The Countess of Chester Trust is also seeing a high in terms of patient numbers. It cared for 139 patients on November 24, an increase of 21 from the day before.

What will happen when lockdown is lifted?

Once lockdown does come to an end on December 2, cases are projected to rise again over the next few weeks as residents interact with more people outside of their household or bubble.

The challenge therefore is to avoid what much of the north of England saw in the latter half of the summer — when infection rates started to increase slowly, but rose rapidly in September and October.

Cheshire East Council leader Cllr Sam Corcoran urged residents to follow social distancing guidance and encouraged hospitality business owners to ensure they complied with the Covid-safe practices required to re-open.

All of this means, unfortunately, the data suggests Cheshire will be spending Christmas in Tier 2 as the current infection rates have not fallen sufficiently to sustain another increase which the NHS can cope with.

Hospitals are always under pressure during the winter, but with staff hurling themselves into an extra-stressful time after months of relentlessly difficult conditions, it seems as if Tier One would be too much of a risk to take.

The advice remains to follow the "hands, face, space" guidance, and to stick to the new Tier Two restrictions in order to slow the spread of Covid.